25th April 2024
Don't Get Caught in the Hype: Leading Edge v Bleeding Edge
Have you ever heard about the Gartner Hype Cycle?
The Gartner Hype Cycle is a graphical representation developed by the American research and advisory firm Gartner. It illustrates the stages that emerging technologies traverse from their inception to mainstream adoption and eventual maturity or decline. Widely used by businesses, investors, and technology enthusiasts, it provides valuable insights into the journey of emerging technologies. The typical stages in the Hype Cycle include; Innovation Trigger, Peak of Inflated Expectations, Trough of Disillusionment, Slope of Enlightenment, and Plateau of Productivity.
Understanding the Dot-Com Bubble
Let's rewind to the late 1990s and early 2000s — the era of the dot-com bubble. This period, also known as the Internet bubble, was marked by the rapid rise of the Internet and the widespread belief that it would revolutionise commerce and communication. Businesses and investors poured substantial sums of money into internet start-ups and companies, driven by the hype surrounding the internet's potential. However, many of these investments were made without a clear understanding of business models or potential profitability. Companies focused on building brand recognition and acquiring users without generating substantial revenue or profits.
The bubble reached its peak around March 2000 when stock prices of these Internet-based companies soared to unprecedented levels. Yet, as time progressed, it became evident to investors that many of these companies were overvalued and lacked sustainable business models. The bursting of the bubble led to a sharp decline in stock prices, widespread losses for investors, the closure of many internet start-ups, and a significant economic downturn in the technology sector. The Dot-Com Bubble serves as a cautionary tale about the perils of speculative investing and the importance of evaluating business fundamentals.
Learning From the Past
With the emergence of new AI technology and major global businesses incorporating this, we are at a major turning point when it comes to adapting these new Technologies. The talk of AI has been at the forefront of emerging tech for some years now, but in the last 3-5 years, the rise has been exponential. With this emerging technology, it is easy to get caught up in the hype and jump the gun. Many large and small global businesses have taken AI on board, with many hoping that this new technology could transform their business.
Generative AI is leading the market for businesses at the moment. AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is the intelligence of a machine that can accomplish any intellectual task a human can perform. For example, using systems like ChatGPT, organisations have started to rethink their business processes and the value of human resources. Currently, Generative AI is in the transition from ‘Trough of Disillusionment’ to the ‘Slope of Enlightenment’ on the Gartner Hype Curve.
So What Can You Learn From This?
The surge of Generative AI within businesses was at an all-time high, the initial excitement led to inflated expectations (Peak of Inflated Expectations). However, as the technology matured, the limitations started to show. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) required significant computational power, leading to environmental concerns, and the ethical implications of deepfakes and the potential misuse in information campaigns became glaringly clear. The initial excitement was met with scepticism. It's now important for you to understand Generative AI, as with all technology with balanced perspectives. The technology holds immense potential, however, it is not a solution to all problems.
The mantra “Don’t believe the hype” rings true for businesses venturing into the realm of new technologies. The dot-com bubble serves as a poignant reminder of all the risks associated with speculative investing, the overvaluation of emerging technologies, and the importance of evaluating the fundamentals of technology before making significant investments. By using insights like the Gartner Hype Cycle as a guide, you can make more informed decisions about when to adopt new technologies, like Generative AI.
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Ray Stephens
Passionate about internet technologies and innovation, Ray established his first internet services business in 1999 offering high-end expertise to charities and SMEs. His primary role at Reuben is to share his vision and knowledge of the internet and technology, helping clients create sustainable websites and digital business strategies.
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